15z surface analysis shows a low pressure system in the panhandle of Oklahoma, with a stationary front extending northeast across central Kansas, through Iowa and into northern Illinois. A cold front is extending down from the low, and bending around through the panhandle of Texas. A dryline extends south of the low, out in front of the cold front, and will be the focus of today's storms.
The combination of surface heating, high dewpoints, and strong wind shear will lead to an outbreak of supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and several large tracked tornadoes, with the area within the high risk the most likely to see these tornadoes. Below are the list of risks, issued by the SPC at 1630z.
RISK
TORNADO RISK
HAIL RISK
WIND RISK
Here's a peak at the first tornado watch of the day, covering the higher risk area for today, with the probability of seeing several strong tornadoes being quite high.
Taking a look at current meso analysis shows significant tornado probabilities climbing quite high, and are expected to continue to increase as the day wears on. 0-6km bulk shear is also climbing rapidly across western Oklahoma, and will continue to move east, and increase as the low level jet strengthens later this afternoon. SPC is forecasting explosive development of cells, with very large hail being the initial threat. As that LLJ continues to strengthen, the tornadic threat will also increase.
Enhanced Tornado Index
0-6 Shear
850mb GFS forecast
People across these risk areas need to pay attention to the changing weather conditions, as several more watches will likely be issued as the day wears on. Any cell that forms will become supercellular rapidly, and has the potential to become tornadic.
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