Monday, November 1, 2010

Quite pattern, but trending colder

After an exciting week last week and the record breaking low (falling just short of breaking the U.S. lower 48 record for a non tropical system), we have fallen back into a quiet weather pattern. That quiet pattern will hold, at least for a little while longer. In the mean time, a shot of cold air looks to work its way down from Canada, covering a good chunk of the eastern U.S. This could spell trouble for the east coast as this trough digs south and interacts with a system working up the coast. Heavy rain and mountain snows appear likely with this system, but the models are having a difficult time coming to a common solution on the strength of that system. For around here, the week will start out decent, but a cold front coming through Tuesday/Wednesday will cool temps down to the 40's to end the week. Temps should moderate some to end next weekend as the ridge out to our west begins to work east. Could see some light precip forming along with the frontal passage, and maybe a little light mix on Thursday, but other than that, things will be quiet.

Just taking a peak into the longer range, the GFS has been hinting at a pretty good shot of cold air coming down. Riding along that edge of colder air could be a decent storm system, and potentially the first widespread snowstorm for somewhere close to home. It's a ways out, and plenty can change between now and then, but the GFS hasn't lost it yet, and even the ECMWF is hinting at something getting spun up. It is something to monitor, but keep in mind that most models really tend to struggle during the transition of the seasons. Forecasters have been calling for a snowy winter, so we'll see if things will get going in the next 10 or so days.