Thursday, October 22, 2009

Temps remain cool...maybe some flakes on the way

Our below average temps continue, and appear to have no signs of going away. Temperatures appear to be staying in the upper 30's and lower 40's through the next few days, with perhaps some snow coming into play on Friday. The HPC currently has the area in a slight risk (10%) of seeing 4 inches of snow on Friday, although surface temps still appear to be much too warm to really support this. I guess we'll see. Next week, models are advertising a potent storm system around the Wednesday time frame. However, the models are not agreeing on the track of the storm, with the ECMWF taking the low much further to the west than the GFS, leaving eastern MN and western WI in the warm sector of the storm. The GFS, however, takes it up through central WI, leaving us in a much more favorable area for snow, if temps cool enough. While this is still a ways out, it appears as though the first big winter storm of the season could be on the way for the Upper Midwest. Where in the Upper Midwest, however, is anyone's guess!

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Warmer start to the week...Soaker on the way?

After being well below normal for quite some time, some warmer temps are moving into the state. Sunday sounds like it's going to be the nicest day with highs in the mid to upper 50's across Eastern MN and Western WI, low 60's across Western MN, and even possibly some 70 degree temps across Southwest MN. Here's some facts about the month of October so far from the National Weather Service: A RECORD COLD...WET AND SNOWY TWO WEEKS IN OCTOBER FOR THE TWIN CITIES.

THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 2 WEEKS IN OCTOBER IS 63.
THIS YEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 47 DEGREES.
THAT IS THE COLDEST FIRST 2 WEEKS OF OCTOBER ON RECORD.

THE PREVIOUS COLDEST WAS 52 DEGREES IN 1875.
THE MOST RECENT COLD WAS 54 DEGREES IN 1979.

THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE FIRST 2 WEEKS IN OCTOBER IS 42.
THIS YEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 36 DEGREES.
THAT IS NUMBER 10 COLDEST. TIED WITH 1985...1987...AND 1993.

IT WAS IN THE TOP TEN WETTEST.

SO FAR IT IS THE 7TH SNOWIEST FULL OCTOBER.
THE SNOWIEST OCTOBER IS...1991 HALLOWEEN SNOW STORM...WITH 8.2 INCHES.

MISERY LOVES COMPANY...THE TWIN CITIES IS NOT STANDING ALONE IN THE
COLD RAIN.

ST CLOUD MINNESOTA AND EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN SHARED THE RECORD COLDEST
HIGH TEMPS.

A mid week soaking appears to be on the way for Minnesota and Wisconsin, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a potent low moving through the area. The ECMWF takes the low up through South Central MN, then northeast towards the U.P. of Michigan. The GFS is further east, taking the low up through Southwest Wisconsin, then lingering in the area before moving off to the northeast. Canadian models are further west, having the low enter Southwest MN, then moving it east and a little north to have it move right over the Twin Cities. All of the models show this warm enough to be all rain. If this were winter time, we would be looking at a large winter storm over the area. However, this won't be the case, due to the warm temps at pretty much all layers of the atmosphere. It looks to be a wind maker as well, with all of the models showing the low winding up pretty good. Early early guestimates for rainfall looks like it could be anywhere between 1-3 inches, but that is early and will likely change with each run. Until then enjoy the next couple days, because colder air will fill in, once again, behind the approaching mid week storm system. Below are forecast models from ECMWF (Top), GFS (Middle) and Canadian (Bottom), at 7pm on Thursday.





Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Snow leaves...cold doesn't (yet)

The first accumulating snowfall of the season brought some decent snowfall to the area, but most places you wouldn't know it due to the fact that we were above freezing through most of the day. Therefore, most of it has already melted, which is somewhat of a concern overnight. Temps will drop well below freezing, so untreated roads, sidewalks, overpasses (etc) could become slippery in spots. The final snow amounts have yet to be posted, but generally they range from just over half an inch (Milaca, MN), to as high as just over 4 inches of snow (U of M, St. Paul campus).

Temps will stay cool through the week, with some warming coming for the weekend (mid to upper 50's?) Those warmer temps will probably only last a few days, as long range shows another cool down. If this were spring, things would be trending upwards in the temperature department, but unfortunately, it's downhill from here. Until then, things will stay unsettled with chances of rain/snow right up to the weekend, but temps will stay warm enough that if there's any accumulations, it will be minor, and melt right away.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Winter Storm Watch cancelled...Winter Weather Advisory issued

As previously thought, the National Weather Service has canceled the Winter Storm Watch, and issued a Winter Weather Advisory to the southeast of where the watch previously was. As discussed before, models have been shifting the heavier precip south, and there is now enough consistency for them to drop the watch and issue the advisory. Below is a map of the current advisory, which goes into effect at midnight tonight, and runs until 4pm on Monday. Counties included in this advisory are Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Martin, McLeod, Nicollet, Ramsey, Redwood, Renville, Rice, Scott, Sibley, Steele, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan [MN] and Pierce, St. Croix [WI]. You can also see some snow starting to show up on radar in SW Minnesota.



As far as snow totals, I think the NWS actually has a decent handle on their estimates. Below is a map (courtesy NWS Chanhassen, MN) of snowfall predictions for the area.

Quick update on early season winter storm

Just a quick little update from my blog post from earlier. The NWS is beginning to fall more in line with the HPC, now saying that the heavier snow looks to fall just south of the current watch area. Current headlines will stay as is for now, and will be re-evaluated by the day crew, just in case things happen to shift a bit north again, although according to the NWS, this is unlikely. Even though there is a Winter Storm Watch up, I would be surprised to see it go to a warning, mostly because I really don't think that widespread totals will be enough to warrant a warning. Instead, my gut is telling me that they will go with a Winter Weather Advisory for most of central MN, parts of southern MN, and over to western WI, where between 2 and 5 inches could fall. The only reason I could see them issuing a warning for this is because the snow could very well fall during busy travel times on Monday, and it is the first large snow potential of the season. Check back for future updates on this approaching system.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

First Winter Storm of the season


Well, we've been talking about it for a while now, and everything still appears to be on course. The first winter storm of the season will be developing in the Rockies, then head up in this direction, bringing with it snow where it's cold enough, and a mix where it's warm enough. First, the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of central MN, effective from midnight Monday, until 4pm Monday. Below is a map of where the watch is in effect.



Estimated accumulations are still a bit of a problem. As mentioned previously, warm ground, timing and speed of the system, and the amount of mixing that goes on in the storm, all play crucial roles in how much snow we get. The two maps below show the HPC forecast (top), and the National Weather Service's forecast (bottom) for snow estimates. The NWS favors more north, where the HPC favors more south. Either way, the first "significant" snow of the season still appears to be on the way. Stay tuned for any further watches, warnings, or advisories that may be issued.



Snow falling in Wisconsin/Minnesota

The cold front, and snow that is coming with it, has crossed over into Wisconsin early this morning. Snow has been reported across parts of Minnesota, leaving a nice little dusting on any cars or trucks that were left outside. Below is a radar image from 3:17am on Saturday morning. You can see the line of snow, as well as the approx. position of the cold front. The line of snow should continue to move off to the east through the late night/early morning hours.



Stronger storm system still on track for Sunday into Monday, but there are still uncertainties as to how this system will evolve. In fact, there will probably still be a lot of unknowns right up until the storm actually gets here. Below is the latest update from the HPC in regards to the probability of seeing at least 4 inches of snow from the system.



Also, according to the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen, some 2-4 inch amounts are possible with this system. Models are beginning to align, but aren't all on the same page quite yet. Below is a map of their first estimates on how much snow will fall. These are very early predictions, and will likely change, and hopefully they will be narrowed down even more as time goes on.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Quick snow update...perhaps larger system on the way?

The first snowfall of the season has officially arrived in MN, ahead of schedule. The snow line was supposed to be in Western Wisconsin around the noon hour on Saturday, but the front has decided to increase in speed, putting the snow band in Western WI around the 2am time frame. Below is a radar image of where the snow is, as of 11:20pm on Friday night, as well as the cold front position, and the current Freeze Warnings for SE MN and SW WI.



A much larger system appears to be on the way to Minnesota and Wisconsin on Sunday, bringing a mix of rain and snow to the area. There are still many uncertainties with this system, including exactly where the rain/snow line will line up, how far north the low will travel, and how much snow will be able to accumulate with the ground not yet frozen. At this point, the HPC is forecasting a pretty good chance of accumulating snows across Minnesota, with the highest likely hood being to areas north and west of the Twin Cities. Below is a graphic of the likely hood of seeing at least 4 inches of snow from the system. Areas shaded in blue are a slight risk (10%), green a moderate risk (40%), and red a high risk (70%) of receiving at least 4 inches of snow. Lots still up in the air, and a lot will likely change, but stay tuned!

Turning colder...snow still on track


For those people looking for 80 degrees, humidity, and all of that stuff that comes with summer, well, you'll have to wait about 8 months before we see it again. The cold air mass is headed from towards the MN/WI area from Canada, bringing with it the start of some much colder temperatures, and the end of the growing season. Freeze Warnings are currently in effect for Western MN, and parts of Central MN. Areas up in NE MN are not in the warning, likely because they have already seen a hard freeze, officially ending their growing season. This whole air mass will be over the eastern part of MN and Western WI beginning Friday night and lasting right up into next week. As long as skies clear enough, and winds die down enough, Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for the rest of us in Eastern MN and Western WI. Below is a map with the current warnings, as well as showing the approx. freezing line as of 3:35am Friday.



The first snowfall of the season still appears to be on track for overnight Friday, but more likely Saturday morning. According to the 00z run of the WRF, the band of snow should be approaching the MN/WI border around the 7am time frame, but that will likely be adjusted with each run. Up to an inch of snow could fall on grassy areas, mostly because the roads are simply too warm for anything to accumulate on them. The snow should melt through the day as temps get above freezing, but stay quite cold through at least the middle of next week. To start off the work week, however, we could see a rain/snow mix, with the HPC putting parts of SW and West Central MN in a slight (10%) risk for at least 4 inches of snow (designated by the blue shaded area)! Below is the map for 7am Sunday to 7am Monday. Stay tuned on that one!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Rain...and cold. 'Tis the season!

UPDATE: From yesterdays forecast model runs, it appeared as though the heaviest rain would fall during the overnight hours. It now appears as though the heavier rain will hold off until Tuesday morning and last through the afternoon hours. As long as dry air doesn't clear things out, a good soaking still appears likely. Below is the GFS (top) and NAM/WRF (bottom) model showing the 1pm time frame.





Temps still appear to really cool off this coming weekend, with the possibility of seeing snowflakes still there. The ground is still much too warm for snow to stick, but seeing the first flakes fall is always a fun sight.

Monday, October 5, 2009

More rain on the way...perhaps first snow?

Another potent storm system is forecast to move through the area beginning late Monday into Monday night, lasting through most of Tuesday. The heaviest looks like it will fall overnight Monday through Tuesday morning. Totals between half an inch and an inch and a half look likely across parts of eastern MN and western WI. Below is a forecast map for early Tuesday morning. We are still well below where we should be for rainfall so far this year, so this will hopefully help out with our deficit.



Temps really cool off towards the end of this week, with the NWS even mentioning a rain/snow mix at the end of the week/this coming weekend. Below is the European (top) and GFS (bottom) forecast model, both showing cold enough temps for this to happen, should we get precipitation. This, by far, is no winter storm, but the first snows are always exciting. The cold front looks to collide with some warmer air well southeast of here, and some heavy rains are possible in the Ohio River Valley.



Thursday, October 1, 2009

Rainfall...FINALLY!

Some much needed rainfall has been falling over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin all day Thursday, dropping some fairly impressive amounts of rain. This rain was so badly needed, so even though it makes things cold, damp, and dreary, it was certainly welcome. Below is radar estimates of how much rain has fallen so far. Areas west of a St. Cloud to Cleveland, MN line saw 3-5 inches of rain, which is the area of purple on the map. The isolated areas of yellow show between 5 and 7 inches of rain. Many other areas saw at least half an inch or more.



Wind was another factor with this system. Here in Eau Claire, winds were around 15-25mph, with gusts around 35mph...decent winds, but no where close to where they were with the system from last Sunday. Drier air is wrapping into the system, making the rain spotty at best. Moisture is continuing to stream northward as the low spins off to the east/northeast, and the moisture that is currently to our northwest should pivot down towards the area as we go through the day on Friday.

The rain should be out of here for most of the day on Saturday, although the clouds will probably stick around. Sunday is looking to be the nicest day of the weekend. Yet another potent storm system is forecast to move south of the area to start the next work week. The GFS is even showing some possible signs of us seeing our first flakes of the season around the second full week of October. It is still a long ways off, and it's tough to get those first snows of the season, but it's something to maybe watch for. The graphic below shows precip in the area, and the 540 line (approx. freezing line) hovering in the area as well.